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Function-Space Priors for Bayesian Neural ODEs with Application to Vessel Trajectory Prediction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Vessel trajectory prediction from Automatic Identification System (AIS) data is essential for maritime situational awareness, yet it remains challenging due to irregular sampling, missing reports, and complex dynamics. Beyond accurate point forecasts, maritime applications also demand well-calibrated uncertainty estimates for reliable decision-making. Bayesian Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) offer a principled framework for continuous-time trajectory modeling with uncertainty quantification by placing a prior over the neural vector field parameters. However, the commonly used isotropic Gaussian weight prior fails to encode informative structural properties of vessel dynamics, such as smoothness and locality. Existing function-space Bayesian neural network methods address this limitation for static mappings, but do not transfer directly to Neural ODEs, where the primary quantity of interest is the trajectory rather than the vector field itself. In principle, one could place a Gaussian process (GP) prior directly over ODE solutions, but this requires propagating distributions through a nonlinear ODE solver, which is analytically intractable. To address this challenge, we adopt a practical approach that imposes a GP-kernel-based prior directly on the vector field evaluated at a finite set of measurement points. Specifically, we augment the standard weight-space variational objective with a kernel-based regularizer that penalizes deviations of the vector field from the structure implied by a GP prior. To handle long and irregular AIS trajectories, we further combine this function-space regularization with probabilistic multiple shooting, which decouples inference across temporal segments while maintaining global consistency.


Variational volume reconstruction with the Deep Ritz Method

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a novel approach to variational volume reconstruction from sparse, noisy slice data using the Deep Ritz method. Motivated by biomedical imaging applications such as MRI-based slice-to-volume reconstruction (SVR), our approach addresses three key challenges: (i) the reliance on image segmentation to extract boundaries from noisy grayscale slice images, (ii) the need to reconstruct volumes from a limited number of slice planes, and (iii) the computational expense of traditional mesh-based methods. We formulate a variational objective that combines a regression loss designed to avoid image segmentation by operating on noisy slice data directly with a modified Cahn-Hilliard energy incorporating anisotropic diffusion to regularize the reconstructed geometry. We discretize the phase field with a neural network, approximate the objective at each optimization step with Monte Carlo integration, and use ADAM to find the minimum of the approximated variational objective. While the stochastic integration may not yield the true solution to the variational problem, we demonstrate that our method reliably produces high-quality reconstructed volumes in a matter of seconds, even when the slice data is sparse and noisy.


Bayesian Kernel Regression for Functional Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In supervised learning, the output variable to be predicted is often represented as a function, such as a spectrum or probability distribution. Despite its importance, functional output regression remains relatively unexplored. In this study, we propose a novel functional output regression model based on kernel methods. Unlike conventional approaches that independently train regressors with scalar outputs for each measurement point of the output function, our method leverages the covariance structure within the function values, akin to multitask learning, leading to enhanced learning efficiency and improved prediction accuracy. Compared with existing nonlinear function-on-scalar models in statistical functional data analysis, our model effectively handles high-dimensional nonlinearity while maintaining a simple model structure. Furthermore, the fully kernel-based formulation allows the model to be expressed within the framework of reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), providing an analytic form for parameter estimation and a solid foundation for further theoretical analysis. The proposed model delivers a functional output predictive distribution derived analytically from a Bayesian perspective, enabling the quantification of uncertainty in the predicted function. We demonstrate the model's enhanced prediction performance through experiments on artificial datasets and density of states prediction tasks in materials science.


Data-Driven Radio Propagation Modeling using Graph Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modeling radio propagation is essential for wireless network design and performance optimization. Traditional methods rely on physics models of radio propagation, which can be inaccurate or inflexible. In this work, we propose using graph neural networks to learn radio propagation behaviors directly from real-world network data. Our approach converts the radio propagation environment into a graph representation, with nodes corresponding to locations and edges representing spatial and ray-tracing relationships between locations. The graph is generated by converting images of the environment into a graph structure, with specific relationships between nodes. The model is trained on this graph representation, using sensor measurements as target data. We demonstrate that the graph neural network, which learns to predict radio propagation directly from data, achieves competitive performance compared to traditional heuristic models. This data-driven approach outperforms classic numerical solvers in terms of both speed and accuracy. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to apply graph neural networks to real-world radio propagation data to generate coverage maps, enabling generative models of signal propagation with point measurements only.


Functional Stochastic Gradient MCMC for Bayesian Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Classical parameter-space Bayesian inference for Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) suffers from several unresolved prior issues, such as knowledge encoding intractability and pathological behaviours in deep networks, which can lead to improper posterior inference. To address these issues, functional Bayesian inference has recently been proposed leveraging functional priors, such as the emerging functional variational inference. In addition to variational methods, stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is another scalable and effective inference method for BNNs to asymptotically generate samples from the true posterior by simulating continuous dynamics. However, existing MCMC methods perform solely in parameter space and inherit the unresolved prior issues, while extending these dynamics to function space is a non-trivial undertaking. In this paper, we introduce novel functional MCMC schemes, including stochastic gradient versions, based on newly designed diffusion dynamics that can incorporate more informative functional priors. Moreover, we prove that the stationary measure of these functional dynamics is the target posterior over functions. Our functional MCMC schemes demonstrate improved performance in both predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification on several tasks compared to naive parameter-space MCMC and functional variational inference.


Particle-based Instance-aware Semantic Occupancy Mapping in Dynamic Environments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Representing the 3D environment with instance-aware semantic and geometric information is crucial for interaction-aware robots in dynamic environments. Nonetheless, creating such a representation poses challenges due to sensor noise, instance segmentation and tracking errors, and the objects' dynamic motion. This paper introduces a novel particle-based instance-aware semantic occupancy map to tackle these challenges. Particles with an augmented instance state are used to estimate the Probability Hypothesis Density (PHD) of the objects and implicitly model the environment. Utilizing a State-augmented Sequential Monte Carlo PHD (S$^2$MC-PHD) filter, these particles are updated to jointly estimate occupancy status, semantic, and instance IDs, mitigating noise. Additionally, a memory module is adopted to enhance the map's responsiveness to previously observed objects. Experimental results on the Virtual KITTI 2 dataset demonstrate that the proposed approach surpasses state-of-the-art methods across multiple metrics under different noise conditions. Subsequent tests using real-world data further validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.


Intelligent OPC Engineer Assistant for Semiconductor Manufacturing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Advancements in chip design and manufacturing have enabled the processing of complex tasks such as deep learning and natural language processing, paving the way for the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI). AI, on the other hand, can be leveraged to innovate and streamline semiconductor technology from planning and implementation to manufacturing. In this paper, we present \textit{Intelligent OPC Engineer Assistant}, an AI/LLM-powered methodology designed to solve the core manufacturing-aware optimization problem known as optical proximity correction (OPC). The methodology involves a reinforcement learning-based OPC recipe search and a customized multi-modal agent system for recipe summarization. Experiments demonstrate that our methodology can efficiently build OPC recipes on various chip designs with specially handled design topologies, a task that typically requires the full-time effort of OPC engineers with years of experience.


GLEAMS: Bridging the Gap Between Local and Global Explanations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The explainability of machine learning algorithms is crucial, and numerous methods have emerged recently. Local, post-hoc methods assign an attribution score to each feature, indicating its importance for the prediction. However, these methods require recalculating explanations for each example. On the other side, while there exist global approaches they often produce explanations that are either overly simplistic and unreliable or excessively complex. To bridge this gap, we propose GLEAMS, a novel method that partitions the input space and learns an interpretable model within each sub-region, thereby providing both faithful local and global surrogates. We demonstrate GLEAMS' effectiveness on both synthetic and real-world data, highlighting its desirable properties and human-understandable insights.


Regularized KL-Divergence for Well-Defined Function-Space Variational Inference in Bayesian neural networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian neural networks (BNN) promise to combine the predictive performance of neural networks with principled uncertainty modeling important for safety-critical systems and decision making. However, posterior uncertainty estimates depend on the choice of prior, and finding informative priors in weight-space has proven difficult. This has motivated variational inference (VI) methods that pose priors directly on the function generated by the BNN rather than on weights. In this paper, we address a fundamental issue with such function-space VI approaches pointed out by Burt et al. (2020), who showed that the objective function (ELBO) is negative infinite for most priors of interest. Our solution builds on generalized VI (Knoblauch et al., 2019) with the regularized KL divergence (Quang, 2019) and is, to the best of our knowledge, the first well-defined variational objective for function-space inference in BNNs with Gaussian process (GP) priors. Experiments show that our method incorporates the properties specified by the GP prior on synthetic and small real-world data sets, and provides competitive uncertainty estimates for regression, classification and out-of-distribution detection compared to BNN baselines with both function and weight-space priors.


Continuous Occupancy Mapping in Dynamic Environments Using Particles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Particle-based dynamic occupancy maps were proposed in recent years to model the obstacles in dynamic environments. Current particle-based maps describe the occupancy status in discrete grid form and suffer from the grid size problem, wherein a large grid size is unfavorable for motion planning, while a small grid size lowers efficiency and causes gaps and inconsistencies. To tackle this problem, this paper generalizes the particle-based map into continuous space and builds an efficient 3D egocentric local map. A dual-structure subspace division paradigm, composed of a voxel subspace division and a novel pyramid-like subspace division, is proposed to propagate particles and update the map efficiently with the consideration of occlusions. The occupancy status of an arbitrary point in the map space can then be estimated with the particles' weights. To further enhance the performance of simultaneously modeling static and dynamic obstacles and minimize noise, an initial velocity estimation approach and a mixture model are utilized. Experimental results show that our map can effectively and efficiently model both dynamic obstacles and static obstacles. Compared to the state-of-the-art grid-form particle-based map, our map enables continuous occupancy estimation and substantially improves the performance in different resolutions.